Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Corbin Carroll

AZ · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupAZ vs HOUCristian Javier
Sample2333.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.5
F 13.4
V 14.6
Model 21.2% Market 17.5% Gap +3.0pp
FanDuel 450 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 80.6% Market 81.7% Gap +16.9pp
BetMGM -445 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.7%
85
Exit velocity91.8
92
Hard-hit%48.6%
91
xBA0.335
70
xSLG0.591
77
xwOBA0.343
87
BB%11.7%
85
Bat speed74.0
94
K%22.3%
52
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-4.7 · RF
1
Arm Strength87.2 · RF
9
Outs Above Avg10.0 · RF
98
Range Runs9.3 · RF
96
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs8.4 · RF
100
Bolts54.0 · RF
94
SB Success Rate90.0% · RF
81
Sprint Speed29.7 · RF
97
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.1%
63
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.4%
58
Correct Decisions66.4%
54
Resists FastballwOBA 0.388
4
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
65
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.321 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.307 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.277
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.307 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.387
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.300 to 0.394
RegressionNegative · -0.023
Opposing pitcherCristian Javier
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)