Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-05-23 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-23

Gunnar Henderson

BAL · Hitter · bats L · age 25
IN · 1 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupBAL vs DETFramber Valdez
Sample2097.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.0
F 11.4
V 8.6
Model 16.1% Market 16.8% Gap -1.3pp
DraftKings 475 tracking Open board
Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.5%
69
Exit velocity90.0
69
Hard-hit%45.3%
73 -21 vs proj
xBA0.333
61
xSLG0.573
67
xwOBA0.299
38 -48 vs proj
BB%6.5%
24 -38 vs proj
Bat speed73.0
89
K%26.9%
25 -30 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · SS
53
Arm Strength93.9 · SS
92
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · SS
26
Range Runs-0.6 · SS
38
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.5 · SS
93
Bolts1.0 · SS
16
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
89
Sprint Speed28.2 · SS
78
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 38.5%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 44.4%
Small sample
Correct Decisions40.0%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.233 · small sample
small sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.175
Small sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.371
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.345
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline87
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.308 to 0.415
RegressionNegative · -0.040
Opposing pitcherFramber Valdez
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)