Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-06-07 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-07

Gunnar Henderson

BAL · Hitter · bats L · age 25
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs TORKevin Gausman
Sample2154.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.5
F 14.2
V 14.2
Model 19.9% Market 17.3% Gap +1.9pp
FanDuel 455 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 70.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 70.0% Market 78.9% Gap +2.8pp
FanDuel 105 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +3.5pp
FanDuel 6000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.2%
66 -15 vs proj
Exit velocity89.1
56
Hard-hit%44.8%
73 -21 vs proj
xBA0.322
48
xSLG0.551
62
xwOBA0.301
41 -47 vs proj
BB%6.9%
30 -35 vs proj
Bat speed72.7
87
K%25.2%
34 -25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · SS
58
Arm Strength93.9 · SS
92
Outs Above Avg1.0 · SS
70
Range Runs1.2 · SS
67
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.6 · SS
90
Bolts1.0 · SS
16
SB Success Rate83.3% · SS
64
Sprint Speed28.2 · SS
74
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.1%
33
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.5%
28
Correct Decisions64.3%
32
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
25
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.300 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.297 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.299
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.343 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.309
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.359
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.308 to 0.415
RegressionNegative · -0.044
Opposing pitcherKevin Gausman
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)