Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Gunnar Henderson

BAL · Hitter · bats L · age 25
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs BOSRanger Suarez
Sample2441.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.8
F 11.7
V 14.9
Model 18.4% Market 16.4% Gap +1.4pp
FanDuel 485 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 66.6% Market 80.0% Gap +16.2pp
FanDuel 155 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 26.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 26.7% Market -- Gap +4.0pp
FanDuel 310 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.8%
50 -35 vs proj
Exit velocity89.6
73
Hard-hit%44.0%
76 -20 vs proj
xBA0.322
53
xSLG0.523
58
xwOBA0.317
65 -32 vs proj
BB%9.3%
60
Bat speed72.5
85
K%21.4%
57
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · SS
60
Arm Strength93.9 · SS
93
Outs Above Avg2.0 · SS
79
Range Runs1.8 · SS
72
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.7 · SS
87
Bolts2.0 · SS
27
SB Success Rate77.8% · SS
41
Sprint Speed28.2 · SS
72
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.2%
44
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.7%
27
Correct Decisions65.1%
39
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
33
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.322 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.316
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.361 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.292
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.346
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.308 to 0.415
RegressionNegative · -0.012
Opposing pitcherRanger Suarez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)