Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-05-25 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-25

Michael Busch

CHC · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 3 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupCHC vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski
Sample1279.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 22 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.4
F 17.9
V 13.5
Model 18.7% Market 20.4% Gap -1.7pp
BetMGM 390 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 45.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 45.5% Market 45.1% Gap +0.8pp
FanDuel 380 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 26.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 26.1% Market -- Gap +4.2pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.1%
83
Exit velocity88.6
49
Hard-hit%44.1%
66
xBA0.336
63
xSLG0.594
73
xwOBA0.357
83
BB%14.6%
93 +23 vs proj
Bat speed65.7
10
K%21.5%
50 +15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 1B
93
Range Runs2.9 · 1B
86
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.8 · 1B
16
Sprint Speed25.6 · 1B
13
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 77.3%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 15.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions76.8%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.256 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.267
Small sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.337
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.315 to 0.379
RegressionNegative · -0.010
Opposing pitcherCarmen Mlodzinski
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)