Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Michael Busch

CHC · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCHC vs MINZebby Matthews
Sample1447.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.7
F 15.5
V 14.4
Model 18.9% Market 17.8% Gap +0.4pp
FanDuel 440 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 62.6% Market 76.5% Gap +10.8pp
FanDuel 125 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 21.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 21.2% Market -- Gap +5.1pp
FanDuel 280 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
69 -18 vs proj
Exit velocity88.1
49
Hard-hit%40.7%
58 -16 vs proj
xBA0.318
46
xSLG0.564
67
xwOBA0.344
81
BB%14.3%
94 +21 vs proj
Bat speed65.8
10
K%22.0%
52 +15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 1B
89
Range Runs3.2 · 1B
82
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.5 · 1B
4
Sprint Speed25.8 · 1B
14
SB Success Rate50.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.2%
84
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.9%
41
Correct Decisions68.0%
68
Resists FastballwOBA 0.323
78
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
76
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.291 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.266
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.371 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.396
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.315 to 0.379
RegressionNegative · -0.017
Opposing pitcherZebby Matthews
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)