Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Michael Busch

CHC · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 5 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCHC vs STLMatthew Liberatore
Sample1480.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 47.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 55.3% Market 56.5% Gap +9.3pp
BetMGM -130 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.2%
69 -19 vs proj
Exit velocity88.4
53
Hard-hit%40.8%
58 -17 vs proj
xBA0.323
54
xSLG0.569
70
xwOBA0.339
79
BB%13.7%
93 +18 vs proj
Bat speed65.8
10
K%23.3%
46
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 1B
88
Range Runs2.6 · 1B
77
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.6 · 1B
4
Sprint Speed25.9 · 1B
16
SB Success Rate50.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.2%
84
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.9%
41
Correct Decisions68.0%
68
Resists FastballwOBA 0.323
78
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
76
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.291 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.266
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.371 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.396
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.315 to 0.379
RegressionNegative · -0.022
Opposing pitcherMatthew Liberatore
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)