Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Michael Busch

CHC · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 6 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCHC vs MILKyle Harrison
Sample1606.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 43.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 43.4% Market 56.5% Gap +9.9pp
FanDuel 135 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 6.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 6.2% Market -- Gap +22.6pp
FanDuel 290 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.9%
65 -23 vs proj
Exit velocity88.3
54
Hard-hit%40.2%
57 -21 vs proj
xBA0.317
47
xSLG0.550
65
xwOBA0.330
77
BB%12.5%
89
Bat speed66.2
13
K%22.8%
49
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 1B
85
Range Runs2.8 · 1B
79
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.8 · 1B
7
Sprint Speed25.9 · 1B
15
SB Success Rate50.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.8%
82
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.2%
39
Correct Decisions67.9%
70
Resists FastballwOBA 0.312
90
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
76
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.292 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.252
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.366 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.391
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.315 to 0.379
RegressionNegative · -0.015
Opposing pitcherKyle Harrison
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)