Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Michael Busch

CHC · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 3 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupCHC vs MIAJanson Junk
Sample1622.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.4
F 13.4
V 14.5
Model 16.9% Market 18.7% Gap -1.8pp
BetMGM 435 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 63.8% Market 76.5% Gap +14.8pp
FanDuel 130 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 22.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 22.9% Market -- Gap +2.1pp
FanDuel 300 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.8%
64 -25 vs proj
Exit velocity88.3
54
Hard-hit%40.0%
57 -20 vs proj
xBA0.314
44
xSLG0.543
63
xwOBA0.326
74 -17 vs proj
BB%12.3%
88
Bat speed66.2
14
K%23.0%
49
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 1B
88
Range Runs3.2 · 1B
82
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.9 · 1B
6
Sprint Speed25.9 · 1B
15
SB Success Rate50.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.4%
81
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.0%
39
Correct Decisions67.9%
68
Resists FastballwOBA 0.307
94
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
74
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.292 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.251
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.360 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.386
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.315 to 0.379
RegressionNegative · -0.015
Opposing pitcherJanson Junk
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)