Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-17

Sal Frelick

MIL · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 8 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupMIL vs MIASandy Alcantara
Sample1469.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 44.2
F 59.8 EXPERIMENTAL
V 63.2 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 44.2% Market 71.0% Gap +9.4pp
FanDuel 170 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 20.2
F 18.4 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 20.2% Market -- Gap +3.6pp
FanDuel 320 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.5%
8
Exit velocity85.0
18
Hard-hit%28.5%
12
xBA0.275
12
xSLG0.364
5
xwOBA0.282
25 -24 vs proj
BB%7.9%
41
Bat speed66.0
12
K%10.3%
98
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.4 · RF
4
Arm Strength90.4 · RF
25
Outs Above Avg1.0 · RF
80
Range Runs0.5 · RF
49
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · RF
69
Bolts15.0 · RF
75
SB Success Rate80.0% · RF
45
Sprint Speed28.7 · RF
86
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.4%
85
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.9%
17
Correct Decisions67.9%
68
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
65
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.316 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.295
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.286 to 0.348
RegressionNegative · -0.045
Opposing pitcherSandy Alcantara
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-17
Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)