Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Sal Frelick

MIL · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IL10 · 9 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupMIL vs SFTyler Mahle
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 57.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 69.3% Market 70.2% Gap +12.2pp
BetMGM -235 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.5%
8
Exit velocity85.0
18
Hard-hit%28.4%
12
xBA0.274
12
xSLG0.363
5
xwOBA0.281
25 -26 vs proj
BB%7.8%
42
Bat speed66.1
12
K%10.2%
98
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.6 · RF
4
Arm Strength90.4 · RF
26
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
47
Range Runs0.4 · RF
51
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · RF
69
Bolts15.0 · RF
74
SB Success Rate80.0% · RF
48
Sprint Speed28.7 · RF
86
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.4%
85
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.9%
17
Correct Decisions67.9%
68
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
65
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.316 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.295
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.285 to 0.348
RegressionNegative · -0.045
Opposing pitcherTyler Mahle
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)