Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Vinnie Pasquantino

KC · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 3 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupKC vs SDGermán Márquez
Sample1875.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.5
F 22.3
V 15.1
Model 20.3% Market 16.7% Gap +2.9pp
FanDuel 475 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 64.1% Market 79.0% Gap +11.5pp
FanDuel -105 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 27.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 27.5% Market -- Gap +2.8pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.4%
54 -17 vs proj
Exit velocity88.5
55
Hard-hit%38.8%
49 -26 vs proj
xBA0.305
31
xSLG0.489
42
xwOBA0.314
58
BB%10.8%
74 +31 vs proj
Bat speed68.4
33
K%17.1%
80
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
28
Range Runs-0.5 · 1B
42
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.3 · 1B
13
Sprint Speed25.8 · 1B
14
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.2%
54
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.4%
67
Correct Decisions66.4%
53
Resists FastballwOBA 0.328
72
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
61
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.246 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.293 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.344 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.339
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.318 to 0.376
RegressionPositive · 0.002
Opposing pitcherGermán Márquez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)