Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Vinnie Pasquantino

KC · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupKC vs TORJameson Taillon
Sample1955.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.7
F 16.1
V 20.8
Model 22.1% Market 16.7% Gap +4.7pp
FanDuel 475 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 77.9% Market 79.0% Gap +15.9pp
BetMGM -375 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.6%
60
Exit velocity89.6
73
Hard-hit%41.6%
66
xBA0.304
33
xSLG0.499
50
xwOBA0.325
73
BB%10.9%
78 +33 vs proj
Bat speed68.6
37
K%15.5%
87
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B
46
Range Runs0.1 · 1B
57
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.6 · 1B
17
Sprint Speed25.7 · 1B
12
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.0%
54
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.0%
72
Correct Decisions66.6%
55
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330
68
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
64
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.274 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.293 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.349 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.328
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.318 to 0.376
RegressionNegative · -0.004
Opposing pitcherJameson Taillon
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)