Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-07-09 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-09

Isaac Collins

KC · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 7 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupKC vs NYMSean Manaea
Sample644.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 56.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 63.2% Market 64.3% Gap +7.8pp
BetMGM -180 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.5%
27
Exit velocity87.4
41
Hard-hit%40.7%
57
xBA0.322
51
xSLG0.453
30
xwOBA0.312
54
BB%12.3%
85
Bat speed70.3
60
K%22.6%
49
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.5 · LF
35
Arm Strength91.8 · LF
41
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
46
Range Runs-3.2 · LF
15
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.2 · LF
5
Bolts1.0 · LF
15
SB Success Rate42.9% · LF
2
Sprint Speed27.5 · LF
53
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.1%
95
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.5%
37
Correct Decisions69.5%
83
Resists FastballwOBA 0.322
80
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
88
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.310 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.239
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.332 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.374
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.258 to 0.368
RegressionNegative · -0.016
Opposing pitcherSean Manaea
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)