Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Isaac Collins

KC · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 5 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupKC vs SDGermán Márquez
Sample664.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 47.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 47.9% Market 67.2% Gap +8.6pp
FanDuel 155 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 18.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 18.4% Market -- Gap +3.4pp
FanDuel 360 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.6%
27
Exit velocity86.9
33
Hard-hit%39.5%
51
xBA0.323
52
xSLG0.457
31
xwOBA0.310
54
BB%11.7%
83
Bat speed70.4
61
K%22.6%
49
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.6 · LF
33
Arm Strength91.8 · LF
40
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
46
Range Runs-3.5 · LF
14
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.6 · LF
3
Bolts1.0 · LF
15
SB Success Rate50.0% · LF
3
Sprint Speed27.5 · LF
53
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.1%
95
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.5%
37
Correct Decisions69.5%
83
Resists FastballwOBA 0.322
80
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
88
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.310 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.239
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.332 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.374
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.258 to 0.368
RegressionNegative · -0.019
Opposing pitcherGermán Márquez
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)