Mithrandir Metrics
WSH 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Dylan Crews

WSH · Hitter · bats R · age 24
IN · 7 Positive regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupWSH vs MIARyan Gusto
Sample734.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 40.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 40.1% Market 59.2% Gap +10.5pp
FanDuel 110 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 11.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 11.9% Market -- Gap +18.1pp
FanDuel 240 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.1%
68
Exit velocity89.9
77
Hard-hit%42.2%
68
xBA0.323
55
xSLG0.560
69
xwOBA0.312
59 -15 vs proj
BB%6.9%
32
Bat speed72.1
80
K%25.1%
36
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.8 · RF
31
Arm Strength93.4 · RF
51
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
48
Range Runs2.3 · RF
73
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.4 · RF
85
Bolts4.0 · RF
42
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
94
Sprint Speed29.2 · RF
93
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.2%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.5%
Small sample
Correct Decisions65.8%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.314 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.261
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.302
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.285 to 0.377
RegressionPositive · 0.011
Opposing pitcherRyan Gusto
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)