Mithrandir Metrics
WSH 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Dylan Crews

WSH · Hitter · bats R · age 24
IN · 7 Positive regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupWSH vs LADBlake Snell
Sample741.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 48.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 57.0% Market 58.3% Gap +9.4pp
BetMGM -140 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.9%
66
Exit velocity90.1
79
Hard-hit%43.0%
72
xBA0.322
54
xSLG0.556
67
xwOBA0.311
57 -16 vs proj
BB%7.3%
35
Bat speed72.1
80
K%25.1%
37
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.8 · RF
32
Arm Strength93.4 · RF
51
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
49
Range Runs2.3 · RF
74
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.6 · RF
86
Bolts4.0 · RF
43
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
94
Sprint Speed29.3 · RF
93
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.8%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.4%
Small sample
Correct Decisions66.8%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.309 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.263
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.336
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.301
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.285 to 0.377
RegressionPositive · 0.013
Opposing pitcherBlake Snell
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)