Mithrandir Metrics
COL 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 21 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Brenton Doyle

COL · Hitter · bats R · age 28
IN · 5 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCOL vs CINHunter Greene
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.109, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.080, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.059, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.2
F 12.2
V 15.2
Model 18.0% Market 12.1% Gap +5.5pp
DraftKings 700 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 55.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 62.4% Market 63.6% Gap +7.8pp
BetMGM -175 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.1%
36 -25 vs proj
Exit velocity87.0
36
Hard-hit%34.9%
31 -33 vs proj
xBA0.309
35
xSLG0.436
24
xwOBA0.248
7 -38 vs proj
BB%9.0%
54 +34 vs proj
Bat speed69.5
47
K%29.0%
19
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.1 · CF
19
Arm Strength98.9 · CF
91
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
46
Range Runs-0.2 · CF
45
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · CF
60
Bolts7.0 · CF
61
SB Success Rate80.0% · CF
45
Sprint Speed28.7 · CF
86
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.1%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.2%
Small sample
Correct Decisions63.3%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.257 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.343 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.319
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.368
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.277 to 0.352
RegressionNegative · -0.097
Opposing pitcherHunter Greene
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-21
Palantir 10338 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.008 14d error falling
Fangorn 10338 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.009 14d error falling
Valinor 4743 props Brier 0.121 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d error rising
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)