Mithrandir Metrics
COL 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Brenton Doyle

COL · Hitter
IN · 5 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCOL vs BALCade Povich
Sample1610.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.7
F 11.9
V 11.8
Model 20.2% Market 12.8% Gap +7.0pp
DraftKings 655 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 69.6% Market 70.6% Gap +12.6pp
BetMGM -240 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.4%
43 -19 vs proj
Exit velocity86.9
39
Hard-hit%32.3%
24 -43 vs proj
xBA0.302
30
xSLG0.432
25
xwOBA0.241
7 -19 vs proj
BB%6.9%
32
Bat speed69.5
47
K%28.6%
21
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.9 · CF
27
Arm Strength98.9 · CF
88
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
48
Range Runs-0.2 · CF
44
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.8 · CF
27
Bolts9.0 · CF
63
SB Success Rate78.6% · CF
44
Sprint Speed29.0 · CF
89
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.6%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.4%
Small sample
Correct Decisions64.6%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.246 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.296
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.303
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.080
Opposing pitcherCade Povich
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)