Mithrandir Metrics
COL 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Brenton Doyle

COL · Hitter · bats R · age 28
IN · 5 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCOL vs STLAndre Pallante
Sample1613.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.0
F 11.7
V 9.7
Model 17.3% Market 12.0% Gap +4.9pp
DraftKings 705 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 53.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 63.8% Market 64.9% Gap +11.0pp
BetMGM -185 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.4%
41 -19 vs proj
Exit velocity86.9
39
Hard-hit%32.3%
24 -43 vs proj
xBA0.298
28
xSLG0.427
23
xwOBA0.235
5 -20 vs proj
BB%6.8%
30
Bat speed69.5
48
K%29.6%
17
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.9 · CF
29
Arm Strength98.9 · CF
88
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF
24
Range Runs-1.1 · CF
35
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.8 · CF
28
Bolts10.0 · CF
64
SB Success Rate78.6% · CF
44
Sprint Speed29.0 · CF
90
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.4%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.5%
Small sample
Correct Decisions64.2%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.243 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.298
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.301
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.257 to 0.326
RegressionNegative · -0.081
Opposing pitcherAndre Pallante
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)