Mithrandir Metrics
COL 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Brenton Doyle

COL · Hitter · bats R · age 28
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCOL vs DETFramber Valdez
Sample1614.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.7
F 11.7
V 9.0
Model 16.8% Market 12.8% Gap +3.5pp
DraftKings 655 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 56.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 68.3% Market 69.2% Gap +12.3pp
BetMGM -225 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.3%
42 -19 vs proj
Exit velocity86.9
40
Hard-hit%32.3%
24 -44 vs proj
xBA0.298
26
xSLG0.427
24
xwOBA0.234
4 -21 vs proj
BB%6.8%
31
Bat speed69.6
49
K%30.0%
17 -15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.9 · CF
29
Arm Strength98.9 · CF
88
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF
24
Range Runs-1.1 · CF
35
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.9 · CF
27
Bolts10.0 · CF
64
SB Success Rate78.6% · CF
44
Sprint Speed29.0 · CF
90
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.3%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.7%
Small sample
Correct Decisions64.2%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.241 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.298
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.319 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.301
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.371
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.257 to 0.326
RegressionNegative · -0.081
Opposing pitcherFramber Valdez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)