Mithrandir Metrics
STL 2026-06-09 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-09

Pedro Pagés

STL · Hitter · bats R · age 28
IN · 8 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSTL vs NYMFreddy Peralta
Sample681.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 34.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 34.8% Market 34.4% Gap +1.2pp
FanDuel 180 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.2%
37
Exit velocity83.9
9
Hard-hit%35.4%
31
xBA0.301
27
xSLG0.502
46
xwOBA0.276
20
BB%3.5%
6
Bat speed69.2
44
K%23.1%
42
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.5 · C
23
Catcher Throwing1.9 · C
94
Framing Runs2.6 · C
88
Pop Time1.9 · C
74
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.6 · C
12
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.1%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions63.4%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.292 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.266
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.307 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.318
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.379
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.236 to 0.325
RegressionNegative · -0.010
Opposing pitcherFreddy Peralta
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)