Mithrandir Metrics
STL 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Pedro Pagés

STL · Hitter · bats R · age 28
IN · 8 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSTL vs SFLanden Roupp
Sample742.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 21 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 49.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 57.5% Market 58.3% Gap +9.0pp
BetMGM -140 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.8%
20 -22 vs proj
Exit velocity84.8
17
Hard-hit%36.4%
41
xBA0.307
36
xSLG0.468
38
xwOBA0.268
18
BB%5.2%
15
Bat speed70.1
57
K%25.5%
36 -18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.2 · C
44
Catcher Throwing1.7 · C
78
Framing Runs2.6 · C
78
Outs Above Avg0.0 · C
67
Pop Time1.9 · C
78
Range Runs0.1 · C
64
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.4 · C
9
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.9%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.9%
Small sample
Correct Decisions65.0%
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.236 to 0.325
RegressionNegative · -0.005
Opposing pitcherLanden Roupp
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)