Mithrandir Metrics
ATL 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-17

Drake Baldwin

ATL · Hitter · bats L · age 25
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupATL vs TEXCal Quantrill
Sample684.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.2
F 14.5
V 14.5
Model 17.9% Market 15.3% Gap +2.1pp
FanDuel 530 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.2
F 66.4 EXPERIMENTAL
V 65.8 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 60.2% Market 78.3% Gap +11.2pp
FanDuel -130 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 28.6
F 28.0 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 28.6% Market -- Gap +9.2pp
FanDuel 165 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.3%
97 +29 vs proj
Exit velocity91.6
90
Hard-hit%51.4%
94
xBA0.369
88
xSLG0.687
92
xwOBA0.379
96 +22 vs proj
BB%10.3%
71 +22 vs proj
Bat speed73.0
88
K%22.1%
51 -35 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.0 · C
51
Catcher Throwing-3.0 · C
4
Framing Runs1.1 · C
65
Pop Time1.9 · C
66
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts1.0 · C
15
Sprint Speed26.1 · C
20
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.0%
28
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.3%
49
Correct Decisions63.5%
25
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
30
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.311 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.299
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.376
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.390
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.301 to 0.382
RegressionNegative · -0.005
Opposing pitcherCal Quantrill
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-17
Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)