Mithrandir Metrics
ATL 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Drake Baldwin

ATL · Hitter · bats L · age 25
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupATL vs TEXNathan Eovaldi
Sample693.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.3
F 15.5
V 14.0
Model 18.4% Market 15.3% Gap +2.5pp
FanDuel 530 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 61.0% Market 78.3% Gap +11.2pp
FanDuel -130 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 22.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 22.8% Market -- Gap +13.6pp
FanDuel 175 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.5%
98 +29 vs proj
Exit velocity91.8
91
Hard-hit%52.2%
95
xBA0.375
90
xSLG0.698
93
xwOBA0.385
97 +23 vs proj
BB%10.5%
73 +24 vs proj
Bat speed73.0
88
K%21.8%
54 -32 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.0 · C
53
Catcher Throwing-2.9 · C
4
Framing Runs1.1 · C
65
Pop Time1.9 · C
66
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts1.0 · C
15
Sprint Speed26.1 · C
20
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.0%
28
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.3%
49
Correct Decisions63.5%
25
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
30
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.311 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.299
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.376
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.390
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.301 to 0.382
RegressionNegative · -0.006
Opposing pitcherNathan Eovaldi
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)