Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-05-28 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-28

Spencer Horwitz

PIT · Hitter
IN · 6 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupPIT vs CHCColin Rea
Sample887.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.1
F 15.7
V 11.8
Model 16.6% Market 11.3% Gap +4.9pp
DraftKings 755 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 68.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 68.6% Market 66.4% Gap +2.3pp
FanDuel -225 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 61.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 61.8% Market -- Gap --pp
Internal -- tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.9%
32
Exit velocity86.0
23
Hard-hit%30.9%
17
xBA0.277
15
xSLG0.413
20
xwOBA0.326
65
BB%13.6%
90 +29 vs proj
Bat speed66.9
20
K%12.6%
93 +19 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
81
Range Runs1.4 · 1B
67
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.1 · 1B
12
Sprint Speed24.7 · 1B
3
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions66.7%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.245 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.296 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.323
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.080
Opposing pitcherColin Rea
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)