Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-08-25 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-25

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

BAL · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 5 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs STLMatthew Liberatore
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 16 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.6
F 12.6
V 16.4
Model 19.1% Market 16.0% Gap +2.4pp
FanDuel 500 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 38.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 37.3% Market 36.8% Gap +2.0pp
FanDuel 160 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%11.5%
99 +42 vs proj
Exit velocity91.2
88
Hard-hit%40.0%
56
xBA0.339
72
xSLG0.722
96
xwOBA0.331
79 +20 vs proj
BB%4.8%
13
Bat speed72.1
82
K%26.9%
27 -28 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 3B
79
Range Runs1.9 · 3B
72
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.4 · 3B
25
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 47.4%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions58.5%
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline79
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.247 to 0.351
RegressionPositive · 0.019
Opposing pitcherMatthew Liberatore
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)