Mithrandir Metrics
MIA 2026-05-23 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-23

Liam Hicks

MIA · Hitter · bats L · age 27
IN · 8 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupMIA vs NYMFreddy Peralta
Sample493.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 1.5
P 30.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 30.3% Market 55.3% Gap -3.3pp
FanDuel 130 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.0%
33
Exit velocity86.9
30
Hard-hit%36.2%
32 +17 vs proj
xBA0.307
33
xSLG0.463
32
xwOBA0.332
68
BB%7.0%
30 -32 vs proj
Bat speed65.9
12
K%9.5%
98 +16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.3 · C
32
Catcher Throwing-0.1 · C
41
Framing Runs-1.3 · C
29
Outs Above Avg0.0 · C
80
Pop Time2.0 · C
16
Range Runs0.2 · C
100
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.7 · C
3
Sprint Speed25.6 · C
14
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 40.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 60.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions40.0%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.231 · small sample
small sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.350
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline83
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.304 to 0.353
RegressionNegative · -0.039
Opposing pitcherFreddy Peralta
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)