Mithrandir Metrics
MIA 2026-06-02 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-02

Liam Hicks

MIA · Hitter · bats L · age 27
IN · 8 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupMIA vs WSHMiles Mikolas
Sample526.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 28 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 35.6
F 59.9 EXPERIMENTAL
V 59.3 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 35.6% Market 58.8% Gap +1.7pp
FanDuel -105 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 98.0
F 98.0 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 98.0% Market -- Gap +18.4pp
FanDuel 4500 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.2%
55
Barrel%3.8%
30
Bat speed66.0
13
Exit velocity86.0
22
Hard-hit%33.2%
23
K%9.2%
99 +16 vs proj
xBA0.285
18
xSLG0.429
23
xwOBA0.322
60
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.2 · C
41
Catcher Throwing0.5 · C
57
Framing Runs-1.2 · C
29
Outs Above Avg1.0 · C
100
Pop Time2.0 · C
32
Range Runs0.7 · C
100
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.6 · C
6
Sprint Speed25.7 · C
15
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Limited
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.4% · rebadged research
80
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.5% · rebadged research
81
Correct Decisions69.6% · rebadged research
82
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
89
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.321 · borderline
borderline
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.308 · validated thin sample
validated thin sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.333 · validated
validated
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.345 · validated
validated

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.307 to 0.356
RegressionNegative · -0.055
Opposing pitcherMiles Mikolas
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-02
Palantir 3219 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.030 14d stable
Fangorn 3219 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 14d error rising
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)