Mithrandir Metrics
MIA 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Liam Hicks

MIA · Hitter · bats L · age 27
IN · 5 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupMIA vs PHIZack Wheeler
Sample660.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 28 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 48.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 56.8% Market 57.5% Gap +9.1pp
BetMGM -135 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 12.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 12.0% Market -- Gap +11.2pp
FanDuel 360 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.1%
21
Exit velocity84.6
14
Hard-hit%30.3%
16
xBA0.279
14
xSLG0.395
11
xwOBA0.309
54
BB%9.2%
58
Bat speed66.2
12
K%9.4%
99
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.2 · C
39
Catcher Throwing0.3 · C
68
Framing Runs-1.5 · C
30
Outs Above Avg2.0 · C
100
Pop Time2.0 · C
26
Range Runs1.2 · C
100
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-4.7 · DH
0
Sprint Speed25.8 · DH
14
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.5%
82
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.7%
79
Correct Decisions69.6%
83
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
88
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.320 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.305 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.304
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.342
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.307 to 0.356
RegressionNegative · -0.061
Opposing pitcherZack Wheeler
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)