Mithrandir Metrics
TB 2026-08-25 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-25

Liam Hicks

TB · Hitter · bats L · age 27
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTB vs DETJackson Jobe
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 22 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 8.0
F 3.5
V 10.0
Model 11.4% Market 9.2% Gap +1.9pp
DraftKings 950 tracking Open board
Total Bases 1.5
P 45.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 46.7% Market 45.7% Gap +0.6pp
FanDuel 110 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.1%
24
Exit velocity84.4
15
Hard-hit%28.1%
12
xBA0.283
15
xSLG0.395
12
xwOBA0.316
62
BB%10.5%
73
Bat speed66.2
13
K%9.3%
99
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.3 · C
41
Catcher Throwing0.6 · C
70
Framing Runs0.0 · C
54
Outs Above Avg2.0 · C
100
Pop Time2.0 · C
30
Range Runs1.2 · C
100
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-5.4 · C
0
Sprint Speed25.7 · C
12
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.7%
81
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.0%
71
Correct Decisions68.5%
75
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
86

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.304 to 0.353
RegressionNegative · -0.061
Opposing pitcherJackson Jobe
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)