Mithrandir Metrics
DET 2026-06-07 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-07

Colt Keith

DET · Hitter · bats L · age 25
IN · 6 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupDET vs SEALuis Castillo
Sample1105.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.5
F 11.4
V 11.4
Model 14.3% Market 10.5% Gap +3.5pp
DraftKings 820 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 52.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 52.4% Market 69.9% Gap +2.3pp
FanDuel 165 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 2.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.9% Market -- Gap +1.5pp
FanDuel 2500 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.4%
41
Exit velocity89.7
64
Hard-hit%43.5%
65 +15 vs proj
xBA0.340
64
xSLG0.497
44
xwOBA0.302
43 -28 vs proj
BB%6.8%
29 -20 vs proj
Bat speed70.1
58
K%20.5%
60
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
44
Range Runs-1.3 · 3B
32
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.2 · 3B
82
Bolts1.0 · 3B
16
Sprint Speed28.4 · 3B
81
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.6%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.4%
Small sample
Correct Decisions68.9%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.265 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.321 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.311 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.354
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.317 to 0.382
RegressionNegative · -0.032
Opposing pitcherLuis Castillo
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)