Mithrandir Metrics
STL 2026-05-25 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-25

Jordan Walker

STL · Hitter · bats R · age 24
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSTL vs MILJacob Misiorowski
Sample1139.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 7.6
F 15.7
V 11.8
Model 17.3% Market 11.5% Gap +5.4pp
DraftKings 740 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 27.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 27.2% Market 48.8% Gap +1.0pp
FanDuel 250 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 61.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 61.0% Market -- Gap +4.2pp
FanDuel -180 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.9%
96 +32 vs proj
Exit velocity94.6
98
Hard-hit%53.7%
95 +24 vs proj
xBA0.391
93
xSLG0.764
95
xwOBA0.387
94 +54 vs proj
BB%9.1%
54 +24 vs proj
Bat speed77.0
100
K%26.1%
30
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.3 · RF
37
Arm Strength102.0 · RF
99
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · RF
8
Range Runs-1.4 · RF
29
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · RF
79
Bolts4.0 · RF
49
SB Success Rate71.4% · RF
30
Sprint Speed28.9 · RF
91
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.5%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 13.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions68.9%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.267 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.261 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.342
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.377
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.258 to 0.352
RegressionNegative · -0.056
Opposing pitcherJacob Misiorowski
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)