Mithrandir Metrics
STL 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-17

Jordan Walker

STL · Hitter · bats R · age 24
IN · 7 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSTL vs AZMerrill Kelly
Sample1304.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 54.1
F 52.3 EXPERIMENTAL
V 55.7 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 60.3% Market 61.5% Gap +7.4pp
BetMGM -160 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.5%
94 +28 vs proj
Exit velocity94.2
98
Hard-hit%52.4%
95 +19 vs proj
xBA0.396
96
xSLG0.715
95
xwOBA0.374
95 +51 vs proj
BB%8.0%
43
Bat speed77.4
100
K%25.1%
36
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.4 · RF
40
Arm Strength102.0 · RF
99
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · RF
2
Range Runs-4.2 · RF
9
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · RF
72
Bolts16.0 · RF
76
SB Success Rate83.3% · RF
57
Sprint Speed29.1 · RF
92
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.9%
28
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.7%
65
Correct Decisions65.4%
42
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
35
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.324 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.290 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.336
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.360 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.359
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.361
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.258 to 0.352
RegressionNegative · -0.031
Opposing pitcherMerrill Kelly
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-17
Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)