Mithrandir Metrics
STL 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Jordan Walker

STL · Hitter · bats R · age 24
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSTL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez
Sample1312.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 44.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 44.3% Market 65.5% Gap +8.2pp
FanDuel -135 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 16.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 16.0% Market -- Gap +21.0pp
FanDuel 170 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.4%
93 +28 vs proj
Exit velocity94.1
98
Hard-hit%52.2%
94 +18 vs proj
xBA0.395
95
xSLG0.710
95
xwOBA0.373
94 +51 vs proj
BB%8.2%
45
Bat speed77.3
100
K%25.1%
36
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.4 · RF
40
Arm Strength102.0 · RF
99
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · RF
2
Range Runs-4.2 · RF
9
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.2 · RF
75
Bolts18.0 · RF
78
SB Success Rate84.6% · RF
62
Sprint Speed29.2 · RF
93
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.9%
28
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.7%
65
Correct Decisions65.4%
42
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
35
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.324 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.290 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.336
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.360 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.359
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.361
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.258 to 0.352
RegressionNegative · -0.031
Opposing pitcherEduardo Rodriguez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)