Mithrandir Metrics
STL 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Jordan Walker

STL · Hitter · bats R · age 24
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSTL vs CHCDavid Peterson
Sample1345.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 53.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 63.7% Market 64.9% Gap +11.1pp
BetMGM -185 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 15.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 15.4% Market -- Gap +20.3pp
FanDuel 180 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.4%
93 +27 vs proj
Exit velocity93.6
98
Hard-hit%50.7%
93 +16 vs proj
xBA0.387
96
xSLG0.686
93
xwOBA0.364
93 +49 vs proj
BB%8.0%
45
Bat speed77.3
100
K%24.9%
36
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.3 · RF
45
Arm Strength102.0 · RF
99
Outs Above Avg-6.0 · RF
1
Range Runs-5.4 · RF
6
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.5 · RF
79
Bolts18.0 · RF
77
SB Success Rate85.7% · RF
66
Sprint Speed29.1 · RF
92
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.9%
28
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.7%
65
Correct Decisions65.4%
42
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
35
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.324 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.290 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.336
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.360 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.359
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.361
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.258 to 0.352
RegressionNegative · -0.031
Opposing pitcherDavid Peterson
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)