Mithrandir Metrics
STL 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Jordan Walker

STL · Hitter · bats R · age 24
IN · 7 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSTL vs COLRyan Feltner
Sample1483.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 50.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 59.4% Market 60.0% Gap +9.3pp
BetMGM -150 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.2%
96 +28 vs proj
Exit velocity92.6
96
Hard-hit%49.5%
93
xBA0.376
95
xSLG0.665
91
xwOBA0.352
91 +46 vs proj
BB%7.3%
35
Bat speed77.4
100
K%25.1%
37
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · RF
46
Arm Strength102.0 · RF
98
Outs Above Avg-8.0 · RF
1
Range Runs-7.2 · RF
2
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.6 · RF
87
Bolts29.0 · RF
82
SB Success Rate88.9% · RF
78
Sprint Speed29.2 · RF
92
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.8%
22
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.3%
59
Correct Decisions64.3%
31
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.322 · small sample
8
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
28
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.314 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.341
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.357 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.362
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.374
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.258 to 0.352
RegressionNegative · -0.035
Opposing pitcherRyan Feltner
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)