Mithrandir Metrics
STL 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Masyn Winn

STL · Hitter · bats R · age 24
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSTL vs CHCDavid Peterson
Sample1549.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 55.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 66.1% Market 67.2% Gap +11.6pp
BetMGM -205 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 17.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 17.3% Market -- Gap +13.0pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.2%
14 -17 vs proj
Exit velocity87.4
41
Hard-hit%34.6%
30
xBA0.321
50
xSLG0.420
19
xwOBA0.300
43
BB%9.3%
60 +29 vs proj
Bat speed69.3
45
K%19.6%
67
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · SS
19
Arm Strength97.2 · SS
99
Outs Above Avg9.0 · SS
97
Range Runs6.5 · SS
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.5 · SS
80
Bolts3.0 · SS
40
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
94
Sprint Speed28.3 · SS
76
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.7%
82
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.3%
39
Correct Decisions68.0%
69
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
72
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.309
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.322 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.307
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.369
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.282 to 0.363
RegressionNegative · -0.007
Opposing pitcherDavid Peterson
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)