Mithrandir Metrics
TB 2026-05-23 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-23

Junior Caminero

TB · Hitter · bats R · age 23
IN · 4 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupTB vs NYYRyan Weathers
Sample988.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 22 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 20.0
F 17.9
V 13.5
Model 17.7% Market 22.7% Gap -5.0pp
BetMGM 340 tracking Open board
Total Bases 1.5
P 65.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 65.6% Market 74.0% Gap -3.5pp
FanDuel 115 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.0%
92
Exit velocity92.9
94
Hard-hit%49.1%
86
xBA0.349
72
xSLG0.630
80
xwOBA0.381
91
BB%12.1%
80 +48 vs proj
Bat speed78.2
100
K%16.0%
82
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength89.8 · 3B
82
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 3B
26
Range Runs-9.1 · 3B
1
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.7 · 3B
15
SB Success Rate0.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 81.8%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.8%
Small sample
Correct Decisions68.4%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.233 · small sample
small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.299 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.354
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.349
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.331 to 0.396
RegressionNegative · -0.015
Opposing pitcherRyan Weathers
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)