Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-05-25 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-25

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CHC · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 1 Positive regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupCHC vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski
Sample1166.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 18.3
F 25.1
V 18.8
Model 19.2% Market 17.2% Gap +1.4pp
FanDuel 460 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 46.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 46.6% Market 46.2% Gap +0.9pp
FanDuel 330 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 71.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 71.2% Market -- Gap +2.4pp
FanDuel -220 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.4%
53 -24 vs proj
Exit velocity88.4
48
Hard-hit%45.7%
75 +22 vs proj
xBA0.333
60
xSLG0.577
69
xwOBA0.323
61
BB%9.4%
57 +39 vs proj
Bat speed71.5
75
K%25.9%
31 -18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.9 · CF
100
Arm Strength101.0 · CF
96
Outs Above Avg11.0 · CF
100
Range Runs9.9 · CF
100
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.1 · CF
85
Bolts13.0 · CF
81
SB Success Rate76.9% · CF
39
Sprint Speed29.2 · CF
94
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 81.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions75.4%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.275 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.267
Small sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.354
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.288 to 0.377
RegressionPositive · 0.009
Opposing pitcherCarmen Mlodzinski
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)