Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CHC · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 1 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCHC vs MINZebby Matthews
Sample1343.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 55.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 55.3% Market 69.2% Gap +8.8pp
FanDuel -115 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 16.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 16.9% Market -- Gap +14.0pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
69
Exit velocity88.5
55
Hard-hit%47.7%
85 +25 vs proj
xBA0.370
88
xSLG0.674
90
xwOBA0.363
89 +25 vs proj
BB%11.4%
80 +61 vs proj
Bat speed72.0
79
K%25.8%
33 -19 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.8 · CF
99
Arm Strength101.0 · CF
97
Outs Above Avg16.0 · CF
100
Range Runs14.6 · CF
100
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.4 · CF
95
Bolts25.0 · CF
85
SB Success Rate80.8% · CF
48
Sprint Speed29.5 · CF
95
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.1%
21
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.2%
76
Correct Decisions64.1%
29
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
33
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.318 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.370 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.322
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.390
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.288 to 0.377
RegressionNegative · -0.034
Opposing pitcherZebby Matthews
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)