Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CHC · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 9 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCHC vs MIAJanson Junk
Sample1520.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 56.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 56.2% Market 69.2% Gap +12.3pp
FanDuel -115 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 17.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 17.5% Market -- Gap +12.8pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.8%
86
Exit velocity89.2
66
Hard-hit%48.3%
90 +28 vs proj
xBA0.370
93
xSLG0.709
95
xwOBA0.367
96 +27 vs proj
BB%11.6%
85 +65 vs proj
Bat speed72.3
83
K%26.3%
31 -21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs4.0 · CF
98
Arm Strength101.0 · CF
96
Outs Above Avg23.0 · CF
100
Range Runs21.6 · CF
100
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs5.5 · CF
98
Bolts37.0 · CF
89
SB Success Rate83.9% · CF
62
Sprint Speed29.5 · CF
95
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.6%
26
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.3%
78
Correct Decisions64.8%
35
Resists FastballwOBA 0.379
6
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
40
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.333 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.351 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.372
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.288 to 0.377
RegressionNegative · -0.040
Opposing pitcherJanson Junk
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)