Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-05-24 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-24

Coby Mayo

BAL · Hitter · bats R · age 25
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs DETFramber Valdez
Sample433.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 19 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 4.3
F 13.6
V 10.2
Model 15.4% Market 14.1% Gap +0.7pp
FanDuel 580 tracking Open board
Total Bases 1.5
P 53.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 53.8% Market 67.4% Gap -3.5pp
FanDuel 170 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 15.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 15.5% Market -- Gap +84.5pp
FanDuel 440 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.1%
49
Exit velocity91.3
86
Hard-hit%46.2%
77 +38 vs proj
xBA0.331
57
xSLG0.550
62
xwOBA0.290
32
BB%9.6%
59 +20 vs proj
Bat speed73.3
90
K%30.6%
12
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
44
Range Runs-3.2 · 3B
9
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.1 · 3B
75
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions64.7%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.345
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.260 to 0.358
RegressionNegative · -0.002
Opposing pitcherFramber Valdez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)