Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-05-24 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-24

Nick Gonzales

PIT · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPIT vs TORDylan Cease
Sample1023.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 3.7
F 13.4
V 10.0
Model 9.4% Market 8.2% Gap +0.9pp
DraftKings 1075 tracking Open board
Total Bases 3.5
P 26.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 26.5% Market 27.6% Gap +1.7pp
FanDuel 750 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.0%
5 -32 vs proj
Exit velocity87.1
31
Hard-hit%40.8%
50 +17 vs proj
xBA0.377
88
xSLG0.484
40
xwOBA0.341
75 +30 vs proj
BB%6.4%
22
Bat speed68.7
35
K%16.8%
79
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · 3B
27
Arm Strength83.5 · 3B
32
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 3B
81
Range Runs2.5 · 3B
83
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · 3B
80
Sprint Speed28.4 · 3B
83
SB Success Rate75.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.5%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.1%
Small sample
Correct Decisions66.7%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.245 · small sample
small sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.220
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.291 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.342
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.284 to 0.335
RegressionNegative · -0.019
Opposing pitcherDylan Cease
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)