Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-08-25 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-25

Nick Gonzales

PIT · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPIT vs SDMichael King
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 21 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 8.2
F 11.7
V 8.7
Model 10.1% Market 8.2% Gap +1.6pp
DraftKings 1075 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 72.9% Market 74.0% Gap +13.2pp
BetMGM -285 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.9%
10 -31 vs proj
Exit velocity86.1
30
Hard-hit%34.4%
31
xBA0.343
75
xSLG0.467
37
xwOBA0.322
70 +17 vs proj
BB%6.4%
27
Bat speed68.6
36
K%16.8%
82
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 3B
51
Arm Strength89.7 · 3B
69
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 3B
28
Range Runs-7.7 · 3B
4
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · 3B
66
Bolts10.0 · 3B
65
Sprint Speed28.8 · 3B
87
SB Success Rate75.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.6%
37
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.0%
90
Correct Decisions68.7%
77
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
62

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.284 to 0.335
RegressionNegative · -0.036
Opposing pitcherMichael King
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)