Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-05-25 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-25

Jackson Chourio

MIL · Hitter · bats R · age 22
IN · 1 Neutral
MatchupMIL vs STLMatthew Liberatore
Sample1153.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 7.1
F 17.2
V 12.9
Model 22.2% Market 16.6% Gap +4.9pp
FanDuel 480 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 49.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 49.7% Market 49.4% Gap +1.5pp
FanDuel 290 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 33.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 33.5% Market -- Gap +3.6pp
FanDuel 170 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%12.0%
98 +25 vs proj
Exit velocity92.9
94
Hard-hit%50.0%
89 +17 vs proj
xBA0.315
40
xSLG0.668
87
xwOBA0.309
47
BB%4.3%
10
Bat speed71.7
76
K%28.3%
21 -52 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg2.0 · LF
91
Arm Runs-0.4 · LF
Small sample
Range Runs1.7 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts7.0 · LF
68
Sprint Speed28.4 · LF
81
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 57.1%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.4%
Small sample
Correct Decisions60.4%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.267 · small sample
small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.285 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.331
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.311 to 0.400
RegressionNo current flag
Opposing pitcherMatthew Liberatore
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)