Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Jackson Chourio

MIL · Hitter · bats R · age 22
IN · 2 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupMIL vs SFTyler Mahle
Sample1373.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 36.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 43.4% Market 44.4% Gap +7.6pp
BetMGM 125 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.5%
88
Exit velocity92.5
94
Hard-hit%46.6%
83
xBA0.343
73
xSLG0.630
85
xwOBA0.330
73
BB%7.3%
35
Bat speed72.8
87
K%24.8%
37 -38 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.6 · LF
35
Arm Strength94.1 · LF
60
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
79
Range Runs1.5 · LF
67
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.4 · LF
79
Bolts23.0 · LF
81
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
94
Sprint Speed28.7 · LF
86
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.8%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions64.3%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.290 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.305
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.312 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.356
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.384
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.311 to 0.400
RegressionNegative · -0.043
Opposing pitcherTyler Mahle
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)