Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Jackson Chourio

MIL · Hitter · bats R · age 22
IN · 2 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupMIL vs CHCClay Holmes
Sample1497.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 1.5
P 10.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 10.1% Market 31.2% Gap +8.9pp
FanDuel 185 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 3.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 3.1% Market -- Gap +42.9pp
FanDuel 170 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.9%
93 +17 vs proj
Exit velocity92.1
93
Hard-hit%48.1%
89
xBA0.349
80
xSLG0.647
89
xwOBA0.342
86
BB%8.0%
45 +22 vs proj
Bat speed72.5
85
K%23.6%
45 -31 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.9 · LF
73
Arm Strength95.2 · LF
63
Outs Above Avg3.0 · LF
92
Range Runs3.0 · LF
79
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.7 · LF
56
Bolts31.0 · LF
86
SB Success Rate76.9% · LF
38
Sprint Speed28.8 · LF
87
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.3%
45
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.5%
28
Correct Decisions64.3%
31
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
34
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.304 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.290 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.290
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.311 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.402
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.374
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.311 to 0.400
RegressionNegative · -0.032
Opposing pitcherClay Holmes
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)