Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-08-25 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-25

Tim Tawa

AZ · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 7 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupAZ vs CHCClay Holmes
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 19 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.1
F 11.3
V 6.9
Model 15.3% Market 12.7% Gap +2.2pp
DraftKings 660 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 35.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 32.4% Market 32.1% Gap +3.0pp
FanDuel 200 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.8%
64
Exit velocity88.6
57
Hard-hit%46.2%
83 +20 vs proj
xBA0.339
72
xSLG0.555
67
xwOBA0.316
62
BB%7.3%
35 -17 vs proj
Bat speed69.5
48
K%21.9%
53 +22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.9 · 1B
6
Arm Strength88.9 · 1B
63
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B
47
Range Runs0.7 · 1B
60
Baserunning · percentile strip
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
93
Sprint Speed27.5 · 1B
51
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.1%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.1%
Small sample
Correct Decisions63.8%
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.218 to 0.333
RegressionNegative · -0.051
Opposing pitcherClay Holmes
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)