Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-05-28 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-28

Evan Carter

TEX · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTEX vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti
Sample560.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.1
F 17.9
V 13.4
Model 16.5% Market 11.0% Gap +5.2pp
DraftKings 780 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 67.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 67.1% Market 65.1% Gap +2.0pp
FanDuel -210 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 52.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 52.6% Market -- Gap --pp
Internal -- tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.4%
39
Exit velocity86.2
25
Hard-hit%39.5%
46
xBA0.277
15
xSLG0.465
32
xwOBA0.298
38 -20 vs proj
BB%14.3%
94 +37 vs proj
Bat speed68.4
33
K%23.6%
39
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · CF
46
Arm Strength89.9 · CF
27
Outs Above Avg6.0 · CF
98
Range Runs4.9 · CF
95
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.9 · CF
95
Bolts11.0 · CF
74
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
92
Sprint Speed28.8 · CF
89
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 81.1%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.1%
Small sample
Correct Decisions77.3%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.247 · small sample
small sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.287
Small sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.317
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline111
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.278 to 0.344
RegressionNegative · -0.008
Opposing pitcherSpencer Arrighetti
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)